Do you remember the 2016 presidential election? We can still see Donald Trump vowing to “bring back the coal industry”. Eight years later, we are once again facing a “Trump 2.0” era. But what changes are in store for us this time?
Trump 1.0 vs Trump 2.0: What’s the difference?
During Trump’s first term, we witnessed a far cry from green policies, including withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement, deregulation of environmental regulations, and support for the fossil fuel industry. But here we are in 2025, and things are very different.
- Change in Congressional makeup: This time around, Republicans are likely to hold majorities in both the House and Senate, further strengthening Trump’s policy momentum.
- Changes in the energy market: The market structure has changed significantly over the past eight years due to advances in renewable energy technology and improved affordability.
- Corporate green policies: Major companies such as Apple, Google, and others are already pursuing RE100 (100% renewable energy use) policies.
Gap between reality and ideal
While Trump is likely to once again call for a “fossil fuel revival,” the reality is moving in a different direction than his rhetoric.
- The decline of the coal industry: From 2010 to 2024, U.S. coal consumption fell by one-third, a trend that continued during Trump’s first term.
- The rise of natural gas: During the same period, natural gas consumption nearly tripled, and now accounts for about 50% of all U.S. electricity generation.
- The rapid growth of renewables: Renewable energy generation is expected to increase sevenfold in 2024 compared to 2010.
These changes are not simply the result of government policy; they are driven by market forces: economics and technological advances. No matter how much Trump shouts about reviving the coal industry, it will be difficult to restart coal plants that have already lost their economic viability.
Corporate greening: the tide is irreversible
Leading US companies like Apple, Google, and Microsoft have already declared their commitment to 100% renewable energy through their RE100 policies. This isn’t just PR, it’s a real business strategy.
Take Tesla, for example:
- Tesla’s revenue in Q3 2024: $25.2 billion
- revenue from selling carbon credits: $739 million (about 3% of total revenue)
- share of net income: 34%.
As you can see, selling carbon credits has a huge impact on Tesla’s profitability. Will Trump be able to upend these companies’ strategies? Realistically, it will be very difficult.
Global Competitiveness Perspective
If the US rolls back its renewable energy policies, it will inevitably become less competitive in the global market, especially against China.
- China’s energy policy: China is investing heavily in renewable energy to strengthen its energy security.
- Europe’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM): The EU is expected to fully implement CBAM in 2026, which could be unfavorable for U.S. exports to the EU.
- Global investment trends: As ESG investing expands, companies and countries that ignore green policies may struggle to attract investment.
There is also a particular focus on India’s energy future and economic growth.
India is one of the fastest-growing renewable energy markets in the world, and the government has set an ambitious goal of increasing non-fossil fuel-based power generation capacity to 500 GW by 2030. This could provide tremendous investment and export opportunities for U.S. companies.
The State of Renewables in India : Rapid Growth and Ambitious Goals As of 2024, India has 203.18 GW of renewable energy installed capacity, accounting for 46.3% of the country’s total power generation capacity.
This is a sevenfold increase from 2010. The Modi government has set a target of 500 GW of renewable energy capacity by 2030, with plans to add 50 GW of new capacity every year.
This growth is being driven by solar and wind, particularly by India’s major energy companies, including Tata Power, Adani Green Energy, and Waaree Energies.
Trump’s renewable energy policy changes could be a double-edged sword for Indian companies. Short-term challenges
- Exports hit: Companies like Tata Power, Waaree Energies, and others that are highly dependent on the U.S. market could be hurt by a decline in U.S. demand for renewables.
- Investment contraction: A decline in global renewable energy investment could make it difficult for Indian companies to raise funds abroad.
- Weakened technology collaboration: Renewable energy technology collaboration with the U.S. is likely to decline. Longer-term opportunities
- Market diversification: A contraction in the U.S. market could prompt Indian companies to accelerate their expansion into other markets, including Europe, the Middle East, and Africa.
- Strengthening the domestic market: Increased global uncertainty could strengthen the Indian government’s support for renewable energy, further boosting the domestic market.
- Technology Independence: Reduced collaboration with the U.S. could lead to increased efforts by Indian companies to develop their own technologies.
Indian companies’ response strategies. India’s major renewable energy companies are preparing for change.
- Tata Power: Expanding its domestic market and accelerating its expansion into Africa, the Middle East, and beyond.
- Adani Green Energy: Strengthening its domestic presence with large-scale solar and wind projects.
- Waaree Energies: Focusing on expanding production capacity to achieve competitive pricing through economies of scale.
- Premier Energies: Focusing on increasing product efficiency through technological innovation.
I think it would be hard to ignore market forces.
It’s hard to imagine that US energy policy will revert to the past. The market is already heavily tilted toward renewables, and the strategies of major companies are aligned.
- Changes in the price of carbon credits: It will be interesting to see how the price of carbon credits will change as a result of Trump’s policies, which could directly affect the profitability of companies like Tesla.
- The direction of international cooperation: If the U.S. retreats from climate change action, it will be interesting to see how cooperation with countries like the EU and China will change.
- The pace of technological innovation: It will be interesting to see if the pace of advances in renewable energy technologies can offset policy changes.
- Consumer and investor reaction: Given the increased focus on ESG, it will be interesting to see how consumers and investors will react to companies retreating from green policies.
After all, there is likely to be a significant gap between Trump’s rhetoric and actual policies. That’s because it’s hard to buck market forces and global trends. Energy policy is a critical factor in a country’s economy, security, and global competitiveness. We will have to pay close attention to market behavior and changes in corporate strategy.
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